Toronto FC have the most expensive roster in the MLS, highlighted by two former international Italian stars, Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi. While their first two seasons in the league have been disappointments, this year the two look to have made a turn.
Now, it is a small sample size, just three games in, but under new head coach John Herdman, TFC are unbeaten in their first three games and have earned six points in their last two matches. Defensively, they are yet to allow a goal this season, and offensively, they have two goals in three games.
Toronto’s two goals this season are near the bottom of the table, and their 27 shots in three games are as well. However, it is about the ratio of shots coming from their two Italian stars. Bernardeschi (11) and Insigne (6) account for 63% of the team's shots and 75% of their shots on target, with each accumulating three.
Insigne is also the goalscorer for their two goals this season, both early goal-of-the-year candidates.
Toronto will be away against New York City FC on Saturday. NYCFC allow an average of 11.6 shots per game, with 3.33 on target. Taking Insigne's and Bernardeschi's shooting stats in their first three games this season and NYCFC’s opposing shot stats, my binomial distribution model provides an implied probability over 75%, meaning that both Italian stars should be -300 to accrue 1+ shot on target on Saturday night.
This provides incredible value, as you can find odds for Insigne to have 1+ SOT odds as high as -120 at bet365 (54.5% implied probability). And Bernardeschi as high as -110 at DraftKings (52% implied probability).
MLS Matchweek 4 best bets
Lorenzo Insigne 1+ SOT (-120, bet365)
Federico Bernardeschi 1+ SOT (-110, DraftKings)
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