Updated - Results:1W-2L-0D
NFL betting picks and expected spreads/totals for Super Bowl 57. Expected spreads and totals are via a Z Score Deviation [ZSD] model.
When the model has found over two points of value on the real spread it is flagged as a valuable bet. For a valuble bet on the total, there needs to be five points of value between the expected total and the real total. If there is no value, then pass on the bet.
Read the notes section in the table to help guide betting decisions.
Best value based on simulation spread bet: PHI -1.5
Best value based on simulation total bet: KC vs. PHI Under 51
Favorite prop bet: Devonta Smith Over 61.5 receiving yards
According to sharpfootballanalysis.com, the Chiefs lineup defensively using two-high safeties at the league’s highest rate (54.8%). This season in the four games the Eagles have faced a side that lines up with two-high coverage at least 40% of the time, Smith has averaged 102.5 receiving yards.
All bets are 0.2 - 1.0 units.
Bet results will be updated at the end of each NFL week. Find my betting record on the Action Network App. My username is jwright_.