Updated - Results:5W-11L-0D
NFL betting picks and expected spreads/totals for Week 16.
Expected spreads in which the model has found over two points of expected value on the real spread are bet. If not, then it is a pass. Expected totals in which the model has found over five points of expected value on the real total are bet. If not, then it is a pass.
Read the notes section in the table to help guide betting decisions.
Best value based on simulation spread bet: TEN -3
Best value based on simulation total bet: GB vs. MIA Under 50.5
Be wary of all total simulations, given the cold front. Below are still the play in which the model finds value, but I recommend you either pass or play at a lower unit size.
All bets are 0.2 - 1.0 units.
Bet results will be updated at the end of each NFL week. Find my betting record on the Action Network App. My username is jwright_.