Updated - Results:4W-4L-0D
NFL betting picks and expected spreads/totals for Week 18.
Expected spreads in which the model has found over two points of expected value on the real spread are bet. If not, then it is a pass. Expected totals in which the model has found over five points of expected value on the real total are bet. If not, then it is a pass.
Read the notes section in the table to help guide betting decisions. Do not fear betting against teams that need to win to make the playoffs. But I am avoiding teams that are resting players since they have already made the playoffs or are incentivized to lose for draft reasons.
Best value based on simulation spread bet: TEN +6.5
Best value based on simulation total bet: CAR vs. NO Over 42
All bets are 0.2 - 1.0 units.
Bet results will be updated at the end of each NFL week. Find my betting record on the Action Network App. My username is jwright_.